No matter which side of the political aisle you stem from, Donald Trump becoming the President-Elect of the United States of America in the wee hours of Wednesday morning was a surprise, and something that was unexpected, looking at the polls leading up to the election. So, what caused Hillary Clinton to lose the Electoral College? Let's take a look:
1. Economy
President Barack Obama helped rescue the US from the financial crash, and used "the economy" as a tool to help him gain the edge in the election. Unfortunately for Clinton, many Americans felt that Trump would do a better job at "fixing" the economy than Clinton. Trump successfully convinced them to believe stagnant wages and increasing inequality was caused by bad trade deals and a rigged economy. Though Clinton pushed a feminist agenda, advocating for equal pay, something her candidate failed to clearly address, the bottom line was that Clinton simply failed to articulate a convincing defense of modern American capitalism.
2. Lack of Trust
A lack of trust clouded the Clinton campaign. Though her email servers had caused much skepticism throughout the election, the impeccable timing of the re-opening of the FBI investigation may have led to a change in heart of many voters.The FBI was investigating the Democratic candidate until just two days before voting with a view to bring possible criminal charges for her flouting of data security laws, even though the investigation proved to be fruitless. Nonetheless, the timing of such an event may have been the last straw for voters.
3. Misleading Polls
Several national pollsters, who showed Clinton clinging to a comfortable three- or four-point lead, downgraded expectations of a Trump win to less than 30% on the eve of polling. So what happened? The polls underestimated what turnout would be among demographic groups (such as white voters) who disproportionately supported Trump. It has also been proven that many people who said they were undecided or would vote for Hillary were actually committed to Trump. Societal pressures may have kept them from declaring their true intention. When surrounded by a perceived majority that favored Clinton, declaring that they too would vote for the majority candidate seemed the easiest thing to do, leading to a bad read on polls. In the privacy of a voting booth however, free from outside judgement, one can vote however they want, and it is clear that Trump won the silent, or in this case, lying, majority. Perhaps the polls led to Clinton's campaign team perhaps overestimating her support and getting complacent. For example, it was clear that Clinton lost Wisconsin in the primary to Bernie Sanders, but failed to make a single visit to the state following the primary. However, Trump went back to Wisconsin at least six times to gain support, and ended up winning their votes.
4. Too Much Political Background?
Having experience proved to be a double-edged sword. With Hillary Clinton perhaps too involved in the past decades, Americans found more reasons to disagree than to agree with her. From being the First Lady to a Senator to the Secretary of State, her presence in the political sphere proved to work against her. There were simply more holes and more opportunities for Trump and his supporters to point out that occurred during the time she was in charge. This did not seem to be a problem for Trump, seeing as his campaign took on the message that Trump would go into Congress to cleanse the corruption that people like Clinton supposedly were a part of, drawing a parallel to the creation and rise of the Aam Aadmi Party in India.
5. A Global Shift to Populism
During the last two decades, parties led by populist authoritarian leaders have surged in popularity in many nations, gaining legislative seats, reaching office, and holding government power. Recently, we've seen rises for parties like the Swiss People's Party, the Austrian Freedom Party, the Swedish Democrats, and the Danish People's Party. In Hungary, the success of the neo-fascist Jobbik party led its government to build a wall against the waves of migrants flooding across Europe. We've seen similar parallels in Latin America as well, with leaders like Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Evo Morales in Bolivia. Over recent decades, the World Values Survey shows that Western societies have been gradually more liberal on many social issues, especially among the younger generation and well-educated middle class. This long-term generational shift threatens many traditionalists' cultural values. Less educated and older citizens fear becoming marginalized and left behind in their own countries, hence, a vote for Trump, who promises to Make America Great Again for people who felt like they've been "forgotten."
So what now? What does a Trump Administration look like?
1. Obamacare
Trump has repeatedly promised to "immediately repeal and replace" Obamacare, to start. That is something congressional Republicans have been eager to accomplish, but unable to without a Republican president. But even with Trump in office, repealing and crafting a replacement for the law will be an arduous task in Congress, where Senate Democrats will fight the slim Republican majority's efforts.
2. Immigration
Even as Trump has unrelentingly promised at his rallies to build a wall on the US southern border with Mexico, his plan does not yet appear to have the backing of Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who repeatedly dodged a question on whether he supports the wall. He has also vowed to deport all undocumented immigrants. In the latest iteration of that policy, he focused on the deportation of criminal undocumented immigrants, but he has not forsaken his pledge to deport all estimated 11 million who currently reside here illegally.
3. Terrorism
Trump will also seek to rethink how the US combats terrorists, tossing aside the attempts by Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama to bring Muslim-Americans and other Muslim countries into the fold, rather than risk alienating them. His rhetoric on the campaign trail and policy proposals on that matter could prove a roadblock to those efforts of increased cooperation with Muslim majority countries. During his presidential bid, Trump called for the creation of a national database to register all Muslims living in the US, called for targeted surveillance of US mosques.
4. Economic Policy
Trump's economic proposals have focused on tearing down government regulations he views as overly burdensome on US businesses -- which would include undoing environmental protections erected under the Obama administration -- and reforming the US tax code. But a cloud of uncertainty hangs over how the tax cuts he has promised will affect the US deficit. While he has promised to keep the proposals revenue-neutral, tax policy experts have said Trump's proposals could add billions, if not trillions, of dollars to the US debt.
5. Climate Change
Trump plans to cancel billions of dollars in payments to the United Nations climate change programs, alarming environmentalists world-over. He has said he would redirect the funds to pay for infrastructure projects in the U.S.
As excited or frustrated you are about Trump becoming the President-Elect, we are all on the same side now, and we all hope he succeeds whether we like it or not. The best thing we can hope for is that both sides of the aisle can check and balance the other and prove the durability of the American system which has come into question throughout the election.
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